Predicting Earthquakes

Earth question symbol represented by a world globe model with a geographic shape of a mark questioning the state of the environment the international economy and political situation.

No one really knows when an earthquake will occur, but it is possible to predict where the next quakes may strike.

Considering how very LARGE the Earth is in comparison to how very SMALL humans are, I don’t think that we can predict when an earthquake will occur – but, it is possible to predict where the largest and most damaging quakes will happen.

Dr Schellart, of the School of Geosciences, and Professor Nick Rawlinson from the University of Aberdeen in Scotland used earthquake data going back to 1900, and data from subduction zones worldwide, to map the main characteristics of all active subduction zones on Earth.

They investigated if these subduction areas have experienced a giant quake in the past, and they looked for patterns in geometrical and geological properties to support their theories.

Brilliant! This idea is very basic, but no one has taken the time to research the patterns until now.

Usable Research

A map of the Bay of Bengal in the East Indian Ocean

Researchers have determined that the East Indian subduction zone is one of the most dangerously active plate boundaries on the planet today – Wikipedia

They found a pattern, and discovered that the main indicators of predicting where earthquakes occur primarily focus on the following characteristics:

  1. the style of deformation in the plate overlying the subduction zone,
  2. the level of stress at the subduction zone,
  3. the dip angle of the subduction zone,
  4. the curvature of the subduction zone plate boundary,
  5. the rate at which it moves.

Through their findings, Dr Schellart has identified several subduction zone regions capable of generating giant earthquakes, including the Lesser Antilles, Mexico-Central America, Greece, the Makran, Sunda, North Sulawesi and Hikurangi.

As we see today, these zones are active, and the number of quakes and their magnitudes are increasing in these areas – no doubt.

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About Janet

Janet Starr Hull, PhD, CN has expressed a deep love and respect for the Earth since she was a very young child. She earned academic degrees in International Geography and Environmental Science. After 20 years of research, Dr. Hull uncovered evidence supporting her theory that the Earth’s geographic poles shift at the axis, causing dramatic climate change. Today, she is one of the world’s leading environmental experts promoting public environmental awareness. Connect with Dr. Hull on Facebook, Twitter, and Google Plus.

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